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Eight questions operators ask every month. Each has a trap that makes the obvious answer wrong, and a tool that fixes it.
Find the question you asked last week. Read across.
| The question | The trap | The fix | Chapter |
|---|---|---|---|
| Did revenue really drop this week? | Explaining noise | A process behavior chart with limits from your last 12 weeks | 3 |
| Should we rewrite the flow? | Tampering with a steady process | Change only on a signal or a plan | 4 |
| Is this campaign a winner? | Regression to the mean | Shrink the result toward your average | 5 |
| Is this channel, agency or hire good? | Calling luck skill | Check whether rank persists from one period to the next | 6 |
| Should we copy what they did? | The halo effect and survivors | Ask the evidence questions first | 7 |
| Will this launch hit plan? | The inside view | Forecast from a reference class, then adjust | 9 |
| When do we stop? | Deciding under sunk cost | Kill criteria written before launch | 10 |
| Was that a good call? | Judging by the outcome | A decision journal written at the time | 12 |
The first four rows are about reading what already happened. The last four are about deciding before you know. Both halves rest on the same idea: an outcome is a draw from a range of possible outcomes, and you only ever see one draw. The job is to estimate the range, act on the range, and learn from the draws without treating each one as a verdict.
You only see one draw. Decide on the range.
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Written by Andrew Lauchner, a growth and retention operator for consumer brands. The paid work is one ninety-day Sprint.
This is one chapter of The Noise Floor, which is free and readable in full on a single page with no form in front of it.