A position says what would prove it wrong. Test each on your own numbers.

1. Most week-to-week movement in revenue, conversion, repeat rate and email metrics is noise.Wrong if, on a process behavior chart of the last year, more than a handful of weeks fall outside the limits.
   Most Movement Is Noise
2. A weekly number needs limits drawn from its own history before anyone explains it.Wrong if the explanations your team gave for last quarter’s weekly swings predicted the next week’s direction better than a coin.
   The Process Behavior Chart
3. Adjusting a steady process in response to noise makes it worse.Wrong if your most frequently rewritten flow or campaign type outperforms the ones you left alone.
   Leave a Steady Process Alone
4. The best campaign, SKU or channel of any period will usually do worse next period.Wrong if last quarter’s top five campaigns, resent to similar audiences, did as well the second time.
   Every Winner Falls Back
5. Skill shows up as persistence. A result that doesn’t repeat wasn’t skill.Wrong if the channels, creatives or agencies that ranked highest in one quarter don’t rank higher than average in the next.
   Skill, Luck and Persistence
6. Case studies and founder threads describe survivors, written after the outcome was known.Wrong if you can find the brands that did the same thing and failed, and they’re rare.
   Other People’s Playbooks
7. Forecast from what happened to projects like yours before you forecast from your plan.Wrong if your last five launches hit their plans without a reference class.
   Start From the Base Rate
8. The time to decide when to stop is before you start.Wrong if the projects you stopped late were stopped for reasons nobody could have written down at launch.
   Kill Criteria
9. Imagining a project has already failed surfaces risks a plan review misses.Wrong if a premortem on your next launch finds nothing the plan review didn’t.
   The Premortem
10. Judge decisions on the information and process you had, not on how they turned out.Wrong if your team can say, without a written record, what it expected from its last ten big decisions.
    The Decision Journal