A monthly close tells you what happened to cash three to six weeks ago. A purchase order balance, a slow payout week and a tax payment can land together in the gap. The weekly meeting exists to see that week coming while there’s still time to move something.

The 13-week forecast

Thirteen weeks is long enough to see the next purchase order’s balance and short enough to forecast week by week. It’s built from cash, not the income statement.

• Cash in: payouts, from forecast sales shifted by each processor’s lag; preorder and gift card cash; financing drawn.
• Cash out: every PO deposit and balance on its due date; freight and duties; payroll; ad spend; fixed costs; taxes; loan repayments; refunds.
• The floor: the lowest balance you’ll allow. My rule is four weeks of fixed costs plus any preorder cash held for refunds.

That picture, seen in week one, gives you seven weeks to deal with week eight. Split the purchase order whose balance lands then, move its balance date, open a preorder that brings cash in before it, or draw on a line arranged in advance. Seen in week eight, it gives you none of those.

The bank balance tells you about the past. The forecast tells you about the week you can still change.

The agenda

1. Where we are · 5 minCash by account, funds pending or held, credit drawn.
2. What changed · 5 minLast week’s forecast against actual. Anything off by 10% or more gets a reason.
3. The next 13 weeks · 10 minThe lowest week and its gap to the floor. New commitments.
4. Decisions · 10 minOrders to place, split or delay. Preorders to open. Spend to move. Each gets an owner and a date.

Three rules keep it honest. One person owns the forecast. Last week’s version is saved, never overwritten. And the meeting happens when things are good, because that’s when the habit is built.

Do this

• Build the first 13-week forecast this week, from the layout in Appendix B, even if half the lines are estimates. Book a recurring 30-minute meeting and hold the first one before the forecast is perfect. It gets accurate by being used.