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One page, every week. Each number with its denominator, and one alarm that tells you when a flow has quietly stopped.
A subscription program usually shows up in the weekly meeting as one line: subscription revenue. By the time that line moves, the cause is a month old. The scorecard below catches it in the week it happens.
| Number | Defined as | What it catches |
|---|---|---|
| Active subscribers | At the start of the week, with starts, reactivations, pauses and losses since last week | The overall direction |
| Churn, by cause | Voluntary and failed-payment losses over subscribers active at the start of the month, month to date | Which leak is growing |
| First- and second-renewal survival | For each of the last three start months | Whether newer subscribers stay better or worse |
| First-attempt decline rate | Renewal charges declined on the first try, over renewal charges attempted | A processor or card-updater problem |
| Recovery rate | Failed renewals later paid, over failed renewals, for charges old enough to have finished retrying | Whether retries and notices are working |
| Cancel attempts and saves | By reason and by the option taken | A new reason appearing, an option that stopped working |
| Saves still active at 60 days | For saves made two months ago, by option | Saves that only delayed the loss |
| Skips and cadence changes | Per 100 active subscribers | Rising overstock, before it becomes churn |
| Disputed charges | Chargebacks on subscription charges, per 1,000 charges | Customers who didn’t expect the charge |
| Flow triggers per day | How many times the failed-payment, pre-renewal and cancel flows fired | A flow that stopped firing |
A number without its denominator is a mood, not a measurement.
From my workFirst, no subscription revenue figure appears without total store revenue beside it. Subscription revenue can rise because the program is working, or because it’s absorbing orders that one-time buyers used to place at full price. Only the store total tells you which. Second, the flow-trigger count is the most boring line on the page and the one most likely to catch a problem nothing else will. A failed-payment flow that fires zero times in a week isn’t a good week. It’s a broken trigger, and nothing else on the page will tell you.
Read churn by cause and by start month, never as one blended number; chapter 5 explains why. Expect the aggregate to rise for a month or two after any big acquisition push, as those subscribers reach their first renewals. When you change something, hold back a random group so the result doesn’t depend on the season or the mix. And re-read the free-text cancellation reasons every week. They’re the only thing here written by customers.
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Written by Andrew Lauchner, a growth and retention operator for consumer brands. The paid work is one ninety-day Sprint.
This is one chapter of The Standing Order, which is free and readable in full on a single page with no form in front of it.