The first-order offer decides who subscribes. A modest discount costs little. A free first box can fill the program with people who wanted a free box.
Every subscription starts with an offer, and the offer is a filter. It lets in the people it appeals to. The deeper the first-order discount, the more of those people wanted the discount rather than the product.
In a study published in 2006, Michael Lewis used customer records from a newspaper and an online grocer and found that customers acquired with a 35% discount were worth about half as much over time as customers who paid full price Published. That’s the long-run risk.
Recharge’s data on subscriptions in particular suggests the risk is small at modest discounts and steep at the extremes. Across about 29.8 million new subscriptions started from July to December 2025, here’s the share that made it through the first renewal, by the size of the first-order discount Reported:
| First-order discount | Renewed at the first renewal |
|---|---|
| None | 65.0% |
| Under 20% | 64.7% |
| 20% to 40% | 62.9% |
| 40% to 60% | 61.3% |
| 60% to 90% | 60.0% |
| 90% or more | 53.4% |
ReportedRecharge, 2026. Vendor data. Recharge concludes that subscribers acquired at up to about 25% off are worth about as much over 12 months as a store’s typical subscriber. This is a different study from the churn table in chapter 5, with a different definition, so the levels don’t match.
Free is its own category. In Recharge’s data on 132.9 million subscriptions from 2023 and 2024, 25.6% of subscriptions with a $0 first order reached a second order, against 63.6% of those with a first order priced at 99 cents. By the sixth order it was 8.7% against 32.8% Reported.
A price of 99 cents makes someone decide. Free lets them decide later, at the first real charge.
The first-order discount gets the attention; the ongoing discount costs more, because it applies to every order. Amazon’s Subscribe & Save is a useful benchmark. Sellers choose to fund 0%, 5% or 10% off, and Amazon adds 5% more when a customer receives five or more subscription items at one address in a month, so the usual ceiling is 15% Reported. Chewy’s ongoing Autoship discount is 5% on select brands. If Amazon and Chewy keep the recurring discount that modest, a DTC brand with a thinner margin should need a reason to go deeper. Run the numbers in chapter 6 before you do.
Where you can, make the ongoing benefit something that isn’t a price cut. Free shipping on subscription orders, first access to new flavors, a member-only product. They often cost less than they’re worth to the customer, and they don’t train anyone to think your real price is 15% lower.
A free sample or trial that turns into a subscription is the offer most likely to fill a program with people who didn’t mean to join, and the one the card networks and regulators watch most closely. If you run one, the Visa rules in chapter 7 apply: express consent, a confirmation with a cancel link, and a reminder at least seven days before the first full charge.
From my workWhen I audit a sample-into-subscription offer, the first number I ask for is the share of sample takers who reach a paid second order, split by traffic source. Sample volume is a vanity metric. Some sources send people who love free things, and the only place that shows up is the second order.
The first-order offer also sets the cadence, and a wrong cadence is the most common reason product piles up. Recommend one based on how people actually use the product (“most people finish a bottle in about five weeks”) and let the customer change it on the spot. A cadence the customer picked is one they own.
This is one chapter of The Standing Order, which is free and readable in full on a single page with no form in front of it.