The first two renewals decide the program. Everything later is a smaller number, as chapter 5 showed. Here’s what those rates do to a group of 100 subscribers who start in the same month.

DerivedFrom Recharge’s reported cancellation rates at each renewal (24.1%, 27.1%, 16.6%, 12.4%, 10.1%), chained together. The rates come from renewals across many cohorts, so the curve is an approximation. Failed payments are not included, so real survival is lower.

Almost half the group is gone by the second renewal, before the program has had a chance to become a habit. The good news is that the reasons people leave this early are mostly practical.

Why they leave early

• Too much product. The second box arrives while the first is half full. McKinsey’s survey found people are much more likely to cancel when products pile up Reported, and Recharge says one of the most common reasons subscribers give is that they “have too much” Reported. Nobody publishes a reliable share for it; you’ll see “40%” quoted, but in its source it’s a hypothetical.
• A charge they didn’t expect. They forgot they’d subscribed, or missed that the introductory price ends.
• They haven’t used it yet, or used it wrong and didn’t see a result.
• The price went up after the first order, as designed, and the full price feels different when it’s a charge rather than a choice.

Four fixes, in order

1. A reminder before each of the first two renewal chargesThree to five days ahead, and at least seven days ahead when an introductory price is ending. Say what’s coming, when, and for how much, with one-tap buttons to skip, delay two weeks, change how often or swap, and a plain link to cancel. Written as a service, not a warning. It turns the surprise charge into a decision the customer makes on your page instead of their bank’s.
2. Easy adjustments, everywhereThe same four actions in the account, in every shipping email, and by text if they’ve opted in. In Recharge’s 2023 report, covering 2022, 35% of subscribers adjusted an order (skipping, changing frequency or swapping products), and 39% of those skipped Reported. A skip is a subscriber who stayed.
3. Use before the second boxTime the how-to content so the customer has used the product properly before the second charge: how much, how often, what to expect in week one and week three. Ask how it’s going, and read the replies.
4. A longer first cycle, where it fitsOffer a two- or three-month supply or a quarterly plan. In Recharge’s data on 65.1 million subscriptions, cumulative churn was 84.2% for monthly plans, 67.7% for quarterly and 30.1% for annual Reported. Recharge itself cautions that committed customers choose longer plans, so much of that gap is selection. Many annual subscribers in that window hadn’t yet faced a renewal, which widens it further, and these figures include failed payments. But a longer first cycle also means fewer early chances to leave, and fewer boxes piling up.

A skip is a subscriber who stayed. Make it easier than canceling.

Two more things belong in the first sixty days. Keep new subscribers out of campaign discounts deeper than the one they subscribed at; seeing a better price a week after signing up is a reason to cancel and buy again. And make sure the card updater from chapter 10 is on before the first renewal, not after.

Do this

• Build the pre-renewal reminder for the first two renewals this week, with skip, delay, frequency, swap and cancel buttons. Hold back a random 10% of new subscribers from the extra reminder, but still send them every notice the card networks or state law require, such as the seven-day notice before an introductory price ends. Compare churn at the first two renewals once both groups have reached the second renewal.