For importers, the last eighteen months were a lesson in pricing against a moving cost. The lesson: pass through a share, not the rate; price for the cost you can see a year out; and don’t reprice every time Washington does.

What changed, with dates

FiledSupreme Court opinion, Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, No. 24-1287, February 20, 2026; CBP interim final rule, Federal Register, June 24, 2026. ReportedSkadden on the refund process, March 24, 2026; Honigman on the Section 301 tariffs, July 24, 2026. Rates change often; check the current schedule before you price.

How much sellers passed on

Alberto Cavallo and colleagues at Harvard’s Pricing Lab, tracking about 360,000 products at five large US retailers, estimated consumers bore 43% of the tariff cost in the first seven months Reported. Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise and David Weinstein, in a July 2026 NBER working paper, estimated about 26% of the tariff increase reached consumer prices, and found the indirect part, through domestic makers’ costs and markups, took nine to twelve months to arrive Reported. Economists at the Minneapolis Fed found the pass-through arriving late: clothing and footwear inflation rose from 0.3% a year in December 2025 to 3.5% in July 2026 Reported.

Methods differ, so take the lesson, not a number: sellers passed on less than the full tariff and spread it over time. That’s also what customers call fair (chapter 5).

Size the rise to your cost, not the headline

A tariff applies to the customs value, not your retail price. Say a product sells for $40 with a customs value of $10. A 12.5% duty adds $1.25, 3.1% of the price. Raising the price 12.5% would be a rise four times the cost. Put the duty per unit into landed cost and the break-even tool in chapter 3.

Pass through a share of the cost, once, on the SKUs it hit. Not the tariff rate, every time it moves.

Four rules for a moving cost

1. Price for the year, not the weekPrice for the landed cost you expect over twelve months and hold it. Each change is a new notice to subscribers and a new reason to compare. Netflix in 2011: “We are done with pricing changes” (chapter 13).
2. Raise where the cost roseA rise on the SKUs a tariff hit has a reason. A catalog-wide rise blamed on tariffs, including products made at home, doesn’t.
3. Put it in the priceDon’t add a “tariff surcharge” at checkout. California’s honest pricing law, in force since July 1, 2024, requires the advertised price to include every mandatory fee except government taxes and reasonable shipping Published. A duty you pay as importer isn’t obviously a tax on your customer, so don’t count on that exception. The FTC’s fee rule, effective May 12, 2025, covers only live-event tickets and short-term lodging Published; its general ban on deception covers everyone. Have counsel review any separate line.
4. Decide now what you’ll do with a refundIf you paid the struck-down duties, you may be owed a refund. If you told customers “because of tariffs,” a visible gesture back keeps the reason honest.

Do this

• Build a one-page duty sheet: each imported SKU’s customs value, origin, duty rate, duty per unit and duty as a share of retail price. Size each rise from it and the break-even tool, and hold the new prices for at least two quarters.