Twelve numbers, reviewed each quarter: three for the core, three for the candidate, six for categories you’ve already launched.
Revenue can’t tell you whether a new category took share from the core, whether its buyers were going to buy more anyway, or whether they return half of it. The scorecard puts those next to revenue.
| Number | How to get it | Healthy | Warning |
|---|---|---|---|
| The core | |||
| 1. Hero share of wallet | Survey plus orders, chapter 2 | Rising, or above the rule’s share for your rank | Falling while a new category launches |
| 2. Share of customers ranking you first | Same survey | Rising | Falling |
| 3. Core revenue per active customer | Orders | Flat or rising | Falling two quarters in a row |
| The candidate | |||
| 4. Steps from the core | Scorer, chapter 4 | 0 or 1 | 2 or more, with no partner considered |
| 5. Fit survey: “how good would we be at making it” | Chapter 5 | Top of your candidates | Bottom, whatever the purchase intent |
| 6. Waitlist sign-ups against break-even share | Chapters 4 and 11 | Close to or above break-even | Well below it, with a full stock order placed anyway |
| Launched categories | |||
| 7. Repeat rate of first buyers | At 1.5 times the reorder interval | At or above the bar in the brief | Below it with no kill decision |
| 8. Adjusted multi-category multiple | Calculator, chapter 7 | Reported next to the raw one | Raw multiple used in plans |
| 9. Cross-buyers with negative contribution | Calculator, chapter 8 | Known, and suppressed from cross-sell | Unknown |
| 10. Incremental contribution per customer | Holdout, chapter 10 | Positive and reported quarterly | No holdout |
| 11. Core revenue among new-category buyers, against the holdout | Same holdout | No lower than the holdout’s | Lower: the new category is replacing the core, not adding to it |
| 12. Return rate, new category against core | Refunds by category | Similar | Much higher, especially with a new sizing system |
Numbers 1, 2, 5 and 6 need a survey or a waitlist; the rest come from order data.
Write it before launch, in one sentence, with a date and an owner: “If fewer than [x]% of first buyers reorder by [date], or contribution per buyer after returns is below $[y], we stop reordering stock and sell through.” Categories rarely fail loudly. They linger, tying up cash and site space, because nobody decided to end them. The kill rule is that decision, made while everyone is still objective.
Every category you launch needs a date on which someone is allowed to end it.
This is one chapter of The Next Category, which is free and readable in full on a single page with no form in front of it.