A position says what would prove it wrong. Test each on your own customers.

1. Most DTC brands buy nearly every customer. A loop makes customers produce customers.Wrong if a third or more of last year's new customers already came through an existing customer, counted on total inflow.
   Funnels End, Loops Return
2. Below a K of one, a loop is a discount on every customer you buy, not an engine.Wrong if referred customers cost more per head than paid ones once rewards, fraud and refunds are counted.
   Loop Math
3. Cycle time decides how soon a loop pays you back.Wrong if cutting the days from a customer's first order to their first invite doesn't raise referred customers per quarter.
   Loop Math
4. Pay in a currency you can print.Wrong if a cash reward beats a credit or product reward of the same face value on cost per incremental customer, in a split.
   Pick the Currency
5. Reward completed value, never the invite.Wrong if rewards paid on the invite or the signup bring as many referred customers who order twice, per reward dollar.
   Pay on Completed Value
6. The invite converts best inside the use of the product.Wrong if a standalone refer-a-friend page matches in-use placements on referred orders per 1,000 customers.
   Put the Invite Inside the Use
7. A few people carry every loop. Serve them by hand.Wrong if your top tenth of inviters brings under half your referred customers.
   Seed the Hard Side
8. A game beats a discount ladder.Wrong if, per recipient, your discount flow earns more than a flow built on a currency, a ladder, a recurring event and proof people win.
   The Game Is the Loop
9. A loop can't outgrow its churn.Wrong if referred customers per month hold steady while your active customers shrink.
   Retention Is the Fuel
10. Every cycle's ending is the next cycle's best input.Wrong if buyers captured at the last close convert no better at the next launch than cold traffic does.
    The Loop Between Cycles
11. Referral dashboards overstate the loop. Count total inflow against a holdout.Wrong if referral-attributed customers match the measured lift over a random group that never saw the prompt.
    Count the Loop, Not the Link
12. Every loop grows a brake: fraud, law or saturation. Build the brake first.Wrong if your reward cost per customer holds flat as the loop scales.
    When Loops Break