One page, every week, for the numbers between the order and the reorder. Each one moves before revenue does.
The reorder rate is a lagging number. By the time it moves, the cohort that caused it is three months old. The page below shows the same story weeks earlier, while you can still change it for the next cohort.
| Number | Defined as | What it catches |
|---|---|---|
| Used by day 7 and day 14 | Share of first-time buyers delivered in the cohort, corrected for who answered | A box, shipping or first-move change that slowed the start |
| Median time to first use | Days from delivery, by monthly cohort | The trend, without the late tail pulling it around |
| Still unused at day 30 | Count and share, by cohort | The people the next fix is for |
| Repeat gap | 180-day repeat rate of early users minus non-users, for cohorts old enough | Whether use still drives reorders, and the size of the prize |
| Plan capture | Share of orders where the buyer gave a when-and-where plan | A broken confirmation-page prompt |
| Education reach by week | Share of the cohort who opened or clicked each spaced message | A sequence that stopped firing or lost its audience |
| One-tap reorder share | Reorders placed from a saved cart, reorder link or subscription, over all reorders | Search costs creeping back in |
| Reorder regularity | Share of repeat buyers whose last gap was within a quarter of their usual gap | Habit forming, or not |
| Resentment signals | Cancel reasons, reviews and tickets mentioning “trapped,” “can’t cancel” or “tricked,” per 1,000 orders; chargebacks | Captivity turning into grievance |
| Holdout differences | Plan prompt and survey holdouts versus everyone else, on first use and reorders | What your interventions caused, not just what happened |
Put the first-use numbers next to revenue, or nobody will look at them.
First, every rate carries its cohort and its denominator. “68% used it” means nothing without “of 2,140 first-time buyers delivered in August, corrected for survey response.” Second, the holdout row is not optional. Without it, the page tells you what happened and lets everyone claim credit. With it, you know which of the chapters you acted on did the work.
Read first use by cohort, never blended: a promotion that brings in less committed buyers slows first use for that cohort without any fault in the box. And expect the repeat gap to shrink as first use improves. The people you move into early use were the less keen ones, which is why chapter 2’s tool asks for the causal share.
This is one chapter of Used, Not Bought, which is free and readable in full on a single page with no form in front of it.