Researchers at the Ehrenberg-Bass Institute have spent decades showing that buying behavior follows a few stubborn patterns across categories and countries. The one that matters most here is double jeopardy: smaller brands have far fewer buyers, and those buyers are also a little less loyal Published.

What it says

The pattern was named by the sociologist William McPhee in 1963 and documented across many categories by Andrew Ehrenberg, Gerald Goodhardt and Patrick Barwise in 1990 Published. Byron Sharp’s How Brands Grow built a growth argument on it: because loyalty mostly follows penetration, brands grow mainly by reaching more buyers, most of whom buy the brand only occasionally Published. Sharp and Anne Sharp’s study of a large Australian loyalty program found it produced little of the extra loyalty it was designed to create Published.

Say one brand has ten times another’s buyers in the same category. Double jeopardy predicts the big brand’s buyers will also buy it a little more often. The small brand shouldn’t expect a much higher repeat rate than brands its size, however good its welcome series.

What it means for first use

• First-use work closes a gap; it doesn’t create an outlier. A brand whose buyers don’t use the product sits below the loyalty level its size predicts. Getting product used brings it back to that level. It won’t make a small brand loyal like a giant.
• Reach every buyer, simply. Most of your buyers are light buyers. A card in every box and a plan prompt for every order reach them. A VIP program mostly reaches people who were already staying.
• Growth still comes from more buyers. If you must choose between spending on acquisition and spending on first use, double jeopardy says acquisition usually moves growth more. First use moves payback: it makes each buyer you acquire worth what you assumed when you paid for them.
• The two views agree on mechanics. Sharp’s physical availability, being easy to find and buy, is a search-cost argument. Both say: be the easy option in the moment of need.

First use won’t make you an exception to double jeopardy. It stops you falling below it.

The check

Compare your repeat rate with brands of your size in your category: peers who share numbers, public companies’ investor materials, panel data if you can buy it. Well below peers usually means a product or usage problem, which this guide addresses. Well above usually means a niche of heavy users: a strength, and a ceiling. Roughly level means your next gains come mostly from more buyers.

Do this

• Find three comparison points for repeat rate among brands your size, and write down where you sit. Size the first-use program with the tool in chapter 2 against that gap, not against a best-in-class number.