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Five ways the catalog changes under a repeat customer. Each has a customer it hurts most, a number that tells you how it’s going, and a first move.
Find the change you’re facing this quarter. You may be facing three of them at once and managing one.
| The change | Who it hurts most | The number to watch | First move |
|---|---|---|---|
| A stockout, days to weeks | Customers due to reorder it this month | Repeat-weighted days out of stock | Stock the products repeat customers buy first; capture intent when out |
| Overstock | Full-price customers who see the discount | Share of revenue sold on markdown | Clear it privately, to people who already buy it |
| A discontinuation | Customers for whom it’s most of what they buy | Dependents still ordering 90 days later | Notice, a last stock-up, a tested replacement |
| A reformulation | Loyal buyers of the old version | Reorder rate of existing buyers after the switch | Tell them first, and let them try it before it ships |
| A pruned long tail | Customers whose basket is anchored by a small product | Repeat-basket role of each cut product | Cut duplicates; protect anchors |
The changes share one mechanism. A repeat customer has a routine: a product they know, a quantity, a rhythm. Anything that breaks it forces a fresh decision, and a fresh decision is a chance to leave. A stockout breaks it for weeks, a discontinuation or reformulation for good, and pruning for a few customers at a time, which is why it’s easy to miss in the totals.
A routine doesn’t need a reason to continue. A broken routine needs a reason to restart.
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Written by Andrew Lauchner, a growth and retention operator for consumer brands. The paid work is one ninety-day Sprint.
This is one chapter of The Catalog, which is free and readable in full on a single page with no form in front of it.