Six moments in a subscriber’s life. Each has a number that tells you how it’s going, and a way it quietly goes wrong.
Every subscriber passes through the same six moments. Most programs measure the signup and little else.
| Moment | The question | The number that tells you | Where it leaks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. The signup | Did they know what they agreed to? | Share of first-renewal cancels who say they didn’t expect the charge | A pre-checked box, a price that changes after the first box |
| 2. The first box | Did the product earn the second one? | First-renewal rate, by first product and by offer | A deep first discount that bought a sampler, not a subscriber |
| 3. The first two renewals | Is the cadence right for how fast they use it? | Churn at renewals one and two; skips and cadence changes | Product piling up in the cupboard |
| 4. The declined card | Did a payment problem end a relationship? | Failed-payment churn as a share of all churn; recovery rate | Retries that stop too soon, or that never should have run |
| 5. The cancel click | Did they get the option that fits their reason? | Saves still active 60 days later | A discount for everyone, or a maze for everyone |
| 6. After they leave | Is there a reason to come back? | Reactivations against a holdout | A coupon on a schedule, teaching people to cancel for it |
The moments interact. A deeper first discount lifts moment 1 and quietly worsens 2 and 3. A cancel flow that fights too hard raises the number of people who dispute the charge with their bank instead, which shows up in moment 4 as a problem with your payment processor. Fixing one moment in isolation usually moves the leak rather than stopping it.
This is one chapter of The Standing Order, which is free and readable in full on a single page with no form in front of it.