Before anyone opens a report, ask three people one question. The founder, whoever buys the media and whoever runs email each write down, in one sentence, the offer a stranger sees before their first order. Then put the three sentences side by side.

Most teams get three different answers. The ads say 20% off. The popup says 15% off plus free shipping. The founder says the offer is the product. Nobody is wrong, and that’s the finding: a brand with three first offers has no first offer. It has a set of promotions that happen to run at the same time.

Then open your store, your ad account and your email platform, and score each check 0 to 2: 0 if it failed or you can’t answer it, 1 if partly true, 2 if clean. Don’t read the bands until all ten are scored.

A brand with three first offers has no first offer.

The ten checks

1. The offer, from memory · 4 minLook at: Nothing. Three people each write the first offer in one sentence.
   Good: Three sentences that name the same product, the same price mechanic and the same promise.
   Cost if wrong: Ads, landing pages and welcome emails argue with each other, and nobody can tell which part of the offer is working.
   Read next: An Offer Is Five Decisions
2. You know your door · 5 minLook at: What new customers actually buy on their first order, ranked by count, last 12 months.
   Good: You can name the top three first products and what share of first orders they take.
   Cost if wrong: You advertise the flagship while strangers walk in through a different product, and the offer is built for the wrong door.
   Read next: Find the Door
3. Second-order rate by first product · 5 minLook at: The share of customers who ordered again within 180 days, split by what they bought first.
   Good: The table exists and someone read it this quarter.
   Cost if wrong: Your cheapest acquisition product may be your leakiest, and you’re scaling it.
   Read next: Find the Door
4. The one-and-done rate · 4 minLook at: The share of all customers ever who ordered exactly once.
   Good: A number, and a target for it.
   Cost if wrong: A healthy-looking average lifetime value hides the fact that most customers never came back.
   Read next: The One-and-Done Number
5. Contribution margin per new customer · 5 minLook at: For the current first offer: price after discount, minus product cost, pick and pack, shipping, payment fees and returns.
   Good: A dollar figure per first order, and a break-even acquisition cost beside it.
   Cost if wrong: The offer can win on ROAS and lose money on every customer it brings.
   Read next: Price It Before You Run It
6. You know the objection · 4 minLook at: Your 1–3 star reviews, support tickets from people who haven’t ordered, and ad comments.
   Good: The single most common reason people don’t buy, written in their words.
   Cost if wrong: You answer every objection with a discount, including the ones about fit, trust and hassle.
   Read next: Answer the Objection
7. The second offer is written · 3 minLook at: What a customer won at a discount sees when it’s time to reorder.
   Good: A planned second offer, timed to when customers usually reorder, that doesn’t simply repeat the first discount.
   Cost if wrong: The reorder email is the first time the customer meets your full price.
   Read next: The Offer After the Offer
8. Established customers aren’t shown new-customer discounts · 3 minLook at: Who sees the welcome code, the ad offer and the sitewide sale.
   Good: Existing customers are excluded from acquisition offers, and sales are planned rather than reached for.
   Cost if wrong: Your best customers learn to wait. In the field studies, deeper discounts made established customers buy less afterwards.
   Read next: The Sale Calendar
9. Offers are judged on the cohort · 4 minLook at: How the last offer change was declared a win.
   Good: On new customers and their 90-day contribution margin, not first-order ROAS or blended revenue.
   Cost if wrong: You crown the offer that brings bargain hunters and kill the one that brings customers.
   Read next: Judge the Cohort
10. One core offer gets the budget · 3 minLook at: How many distinct first offers are live in paid media right now, and what share of spend each gets.
    Good: One core offer with most of the budget and a small, deliberate test lane.
    Cost if wrong: Five offers, none funded well enough to prove anything.
    Read next: One Door at a Time

Score as you go; your band appears when all ten are in.

Read your score

Fix zeros before ones, in check order. The early checks feed the later ones: you can’t price an offer until you know which product it sells, and you can’t judge an offer on its cohort until you know what a cohort normally does.

Put your two lowest beside the three sentences from check 1. If the sentences disagree and check 5 is a zero, the brand is paying to acquire customers it has never priced. The rest of this book fixes that in order.

Do this

• Score all ten. Write the total and the three offer sentences on one page, and hand it to whoever owns growth before Monday.