MAKE THE NEXT ORDER THE DEFAULT

Two of the most durable retail businesses in America sell the next order in advance. One charges a fee for the right to shop. The other gives a discount for scheduling the next delivery. Both turn the second order from a decision into a default.

Costco sells the next step as the product

A Costco membership is a first offer with the next step built in: pay the fee, and every visit afterward is cheaper than it would be elsewhere. The renewal is the second offer, and the customer has already been paid, visit by visit, to accept it. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, as reported from the company’s results, 92.3% of members in the U.S. and Canada renewed, and 89.8% worldwide. Membership fee income in that quarter was $1.72 billion, up 14% on the year.

The fee does something a discount can’t. It makes the customer want to use what they paid for. Every trip to Costco is partly a trip to get the fee’s worth.

Chewy makes the reorder the default

Chewy’s Autoship offer is a discount for scheduling repeat delivery of pet food and supplies the pet was going to need anyway. In fiscal 2025, Chewy reported net sales of $12.60 billion, and $10.50 billion of it, 83.3%, came from Autoship customers. A year earlier the share was 79.2%, as Subscription Insider reported from the filing.

83.3%

of Chewy’s fiscal 2025 net sales came from Autoship customers (company results)

92.3%

Costco’s U.S. and Canada renewal rate, fourth quarter fiscal 2025 (reported)

Pet food is the ideal category for a default: the need is certain, the timing is predictable, and the cost of running out is a hungry animal. The offer makes the obvious next order effortless. Fogg’s ability term, from chapter 3, is doing almost all the work.

A default beats a discount because the customer doesn’t have to decide again.

Which default fits your product

Default	Fits when	Watch for
Subscribe and save	The customer runs out on a predictable clock	The schedule must match real use, or boxes pile up and they cancel
Membership fee	Customers buy often enough to feel the fee paid back	Members who don’t use it resent it at renewal
Replenishment reminder	Use varies too much to schedule	A reminder is a prompt, not a default; keep it one tap to reorder
Collection or set	Customers build over time, like jewelry, figures, books	Show what they own and what’s missing, never just the newest item

The rules for a fair default

Show the full terms on the first screen: the renewal price, the schedule and how to stop.
Make changing the schedule easier than cancelling. Most subscription cancels are schedule problems.
Remind before you charge. A surprise charge buys a chargeback and a customer who tells people.
Have counsel read it. Auto-renewal law differs by state and changes often.

Do this

Take your door product from chapter 7 and ask which default fits it. If none fits, the next step is a reminder with a one-tap reorder.
Offer the default on the first order, not in a reorder email. The first checkout is when the customer is most willing to decide once.

This is one chapter of The First Offer, which is free and readable in full on a single page with no form in front of it.