The campaign report closes when the attribution window does. The customers the offer brought are just starting. Every offer in this book has been judged by what its customers did afterwards, because that’s where the first offer’s real price shows up.

Three readings of every offer

The first order tells you the offer converted. The 180th day tells you what it bought.

Four ways offers get misjudged

1. Blended numbersRevenue from existing customers who used a new-customer code makes a discount look like a winner. Judge on new customers only, and separately count how many existing customers used the code. That count is cannibalization.
2. Stale targetsA bigger first offer with a bigger basket needs a bigger acquisition target. Judging it against last quarter’s target kills good offers. Recompute targets when the offer changes (chapter 9).
3. Platform-only verdictsAd platform revenue and your store’s revenue disagree often enough that neither should judge alone. Every verdict gets checked against orders in your store and new-customer counts in your own data.
4. Seasonal comparisonsAn offer launched in November and one launched in March bring different customers for reasons that have nothing to do with the offer. Compare offers in the same window, or against a holdout.

The table to keep

One row per first offer, updated monthly: start date, new customers, first-order contribution, acquisition cost, 90-day second-order rate, 180-day contribution per customer after acquisition cost, and existing customers who used it. After two quarters, this table is the most valuable document your growth team owns. It’s how you know which study in chapter 4 your brand lives in.

Do this

• Start the table today with every first offer you’ve run in the last year. Appendix A has the query.
• Put a calendar reminder at day 90 and day 180 for every offer you launch from now on.