Kill criteria

BET                what we're launching, and its budget:
OWNER              who runs it:
DECIDES            who applies the criteria (and who can overrule, in writing):
METRIC             one number the bet controls:
BASE RATE          what similar bets did (reference class, chapter 9):
MINIMUM SAMPLE     orders or weeks before the criteria count:
CHECK DATE         on the calendar:
KILL IF            metric worse than:
SCALE IF           metric better than:
CONTINUE IF        in between, for how long, and then decide with no extension:

The premortem

20 MINUTES, BEFORE LAUNCH
 2 min   Brief the final plan and its kill criteria.
 1 min   "It's [date, six months out]. This failed badly."
 6 min   Everyone writes every reason, alone. Include the ones
         you wouldn't normally say.
 8 min   Round the room, one reason per turn, until the lists
         are empty. The founder goes last.
 3 min   Owner picks the reasons that change the plan today,
         and the ones that become signals to watch.
AFTER    List goes in the decision journal entry for this launch.

Decision journal entry

DATE               today:
DECISION           what we chose:
OPTIONS            what else we considered, including doing nothing:
BASE RATE          what usually happens in cases like this:
EXPECT             a number and a range (low / most likely / high):
CONFIDENCE         % that the result lands in the range:
WHY                the two or three reasons that decided it:
CHANGE MY MIND     the signal or kill criterion that would reopen it:
REVIEW DATE        when we'll read this again:
-- at review --
RESULT             what happened:
BOX                good or bad decision / good or bad outcome:
LESSON             what we'd do differently, about the process:

The Monday agenda

1. SIGNALS      numbers that broke a rule. Owner and one question:
                "what happened that week?"
2. NOISE        everything else, read out as "inside the limits."
                No discussion.
3. BETS         live bets at their check date. Apply the criteria.
4. DECISIONS    anything decided this week goes in the journal
                before the meeting ends.

Before we copy it

TACTIC             what, and whose:
1. CAUSE           did it cause their success, or come with it?
2. FAILURES        who did the same and failed? (name them, or say
                   you didn't look)
3. HALO            would we rate it the same if they were struggling?
4. CONDITIONS      what made it work there that we don't share?
5. SMALL TEST      cheapest way to find out here:
6. DOWNSIDE        what it costs if we're wrong: