A position says what would prove it wrong. Test each on your own customers.

1. Most brands have more money left in their customers’ category spend than a new category brings in its first year.Wrong if your hero product already takes most of what your typical customer spends in its category.
   Headroom Before Horizon
2. Your rank in the customer’s head predicts your share of their spend better than their satisfaction does.Wrong if customers who rank you second give you as much of their spend as customers who rank you first.
   Headroom Before Horizon
3. The evidence that growth comes from the next step out is weaker than it sounds, because it was drawn from winners.Wrong if a study of every expansion, failures included, found distance from the core didn’t matter.
   The Adjacency Record
4. Distance from the core can be counted: same customer, same occasion, same supply chain, same proof.Wrong if your moves that shared none of the four did as well as the ones that shared all four.
   How Far Is One Step?
5. An extension sells when customers can see why you’d be good at it, not just because they like you.Wrong if the extension your customers rate as the poorest fit outsells the one they rate as the best.
   Will They Believe You Make It?
6. “Multi-category customers are worth 3x” is mostly selection: heavy buyers buy more categories.Wrong if customers who went on to buy a second category weren’t already spending more before they did.
   The 3x Customer
7. Some cross-buyers lose money, and pushing them into more categories loses more.Wrong if your most discounted, most returning cross-buyers are profitable after returns, shipping and service.
   Cross-Buyers Who Cost You
8. Products per customer is a result. Make it a target and people will manufacture it.Wrong if a team paid on categories per customer never pushed a product the customer didn’t need.
   Products per Customer Is Not a Goal
9. A cross-category nudge without a holdout is a guess with a revenue number attached.Wrong if a holdout shows your cross-sell flow caused nearly all the purchases its dashboard credits it with.
   Test the Nudge
10. Launch to the base first and judge the launch on the second order, not the first.Wrong if the first-order sell-through of your past launches predicted which ones were still selling a year later.
    Launch to the Base First